The time
is ripe for meaningful change in Florida. Florida Governor Charlie Crist
has made addressing climate change a primary goal of his administration
and, among other actions, has established the Florida Governor's Action
Team on Climate Change and Energy. This body has been meeting for the
last year to draft an action plan that will include transportation and
land use recommendations. Governor Crist has also identified sustainable
growth and multimodal infrastructure as two of Florida's Six Economic
"Drivers."
In 2008,
the Florida Legislature passed two pieces of far-reaching legislation
addressing the impacts of land use and transportation on climate change,
among other things requiring that the State Comprehensive Plan be amended
to address global climate change, and that the local comprehensive plans
required in each of Florida's 67 counties and more than 400 municipalities
address energy efficient land use patterns and green house gas reductions.
The Legislature further created the Florida Energy and Climate Commission
to oversee implementation of such issues.
At the
local level, a growing number of communities, including Alachua (Gainesville),
Leon (Tallahassee), Miami-Dade, Orange (Orlando), and other counties,
are adopting programs to address climate change and energy efficiency,
including transportation and land use linkage solutions. Citizens too
are working to support these programs but increasingly are in need of
assistance in finding appropriate and feasible implementation actions.
Florida
and Climate Change
Due
to our vast coastline, low-lying elevations, and growing coastal population,
Florida is widely recognized as being one of the states that is most
vulnerable to the effects of global warming. In South Florida alone
there has been a 9-inch rise in sea levels since the 1930s, a rate much
faster than the global average. Sea level rise directly leads to beach
erosion and shoreline recession which directly leads to major economic
and tourism as well as environmental impacts. A recent analysis of the
economic costs associated with a 2-foot sea level rise, consistent with
the United Nations' IPCC report, and likely increased storm events in
6 south Florida counties by 2080 show a substantial increase in property
and structure losses. A 2007 Tufts University report indicated that
a 27-inch sea level rise would render 9 percent of the entire state
subject to inundation that could lead to $327 billion in costs by 2100.
Even with a more moderate 15-inch sea level rise, almost 50 percent
of important saltmarsh and 84 percent of tidal flats would be lost,
with about 14 percent of dry land, 30 percent of ocean beaches, and
67 percent of estuarine beaches disappearing.
A recent
study released by the Brookings Institute, Shrinking
the Carbon Footprint of Metropolitan America (May 2008), revealed
that metro Floridians emitted more greenhouses gases per person than
typical residents of other cities in the nation's 100 largest metropolitan
areas. Between 2000 and 2005, these Floridians dramatically raised their
per capita carbon footprints. The biggest increase was from transportation,
ranging from a 4.6 percent rise in Jacksonville to a whopping 58.6 percent
in Sarasota-Bradenton-Venice. By comparison, the average increase in
the nation's 100 largest metro areas was 2.4 percent.
The Urban
Land Institute study, Growing
Cooler: Evidence on Urban Development and Climate Change (2007),
notes that if sprawling development continues to fuel growth in driving,
the projected 59 percent national increase in the total miles driven
between 2005 and 2030 will overwhelm expected gains from vehicle efficiency
and low-carbon fuels. Even with those technological improvements, national
vehicle emissions of carbon dioxide would be 41 percent above today's
levels, well over the goal of reducing CO2 emissions to 1990 levels
by 2050. The study reveals that Americans living in compact neighborhoods
where cars are not the only transportation option drive a third fewer
miles than those in typical automobile-oriented places, such as subdivisions
and office parks. According to the report, two-thirds of development
expected to be on the ground in 2050 is not yet built, meaning that
the potential for change is profound. The paper calculates that shifting
60 percent of new growth to compact patterns would save 53 million tons
of CO2 annually by 2030, equivalent to a 16 percent increase in fuel
economy standards.
These national
studies resonate strongly in Florida. In 2006, 1000 Friends of Florida
commissioned a major study, Florida 2060: a Population Distribution
Scenario for Florida, which includes the projection that the state's
population will double to 36 million people by 2060. If Florida continues
with its current patterns of sprawling development, this means that
roughly 7 million acres of additional land will be converted from rural
to urban uses in Florida, including 2.7 million acres of existing agricultural
lands and 2.7 million acres of native habitat. Florida 2060 clearly
shows that the State of Florida sits at the "tipping point"
related to land consumption for urban development.
Rural land
in Florida is being urbanized at an alarming rate, and such wholesale
continued sprawling development will serve to further increase VMTs
in Florida over the next 50 years. Florida's residents are driving more
than ever before, fueling increases in vehicle fuel emissions, one of
the leading sources of global warming pollution. According to Florida
Department of Transportation data, annual vehicle miles traveled in
Florida increased from 127.8 billion in 1995 to 203.8 billion in 2005,
a 59 percent increase. This trend is projected to continue into the
future, with 228 billion annual vehicle miles traveled anticipated in
2011, a 79 percent increase over 1995.
Laying
the Foundation for Change
In addition to Governor Crist's creation of the Florida Governor's Action
Team on Energy and Climate Change, Florida is beginning to take some
other beginning steps in the right direction. The 2008 Legislature passed
two pieces of far-reaching legislation addressing the impacts of land
use and transportation on climate change. House Bill 697 includes requirements
that the Future Land Use and Transportation Elements of local comprehensive
plans address energy efficient land use patterns and greenhouse gas
reductions. Larger communities with Traffic Circulation Elements also
must include strategies to reduce greenhouse gases from the transportation
sector.
The second
bill, HB 7135, focuses on energy issues and requires that the State
Comprehensive Plan be amended to address energy issues and global climate
change. A high priority for Governor Charlie Crist, HB 7135 also implements
the Governor's executive orders related to reduction targets for greenhouse
gas emissions and the development of a regulatory rule to cap electric
utility greenhouse gas emissions. In addition, it creates a Florida
Energy and Climate Commission composed of 9 members, to be appointed
by the Governor, Commissioner of Agriculture, and Chief Financial Officer.
This body will be charged with the implementation of energy-related
issues. 1000 Friends of Florida will be actively working to influence
this commission and the Legislature to continue to pursue and implement
smart growth solutions to these critical energy and climate issues which
are so directly related.
About
1000 Friends of Florida
1000 Friends of Florida is Florida's only statewide nonprofit membership
organization dedicated to promoting smarter growth. Current and former
board members are bipartisan state leaders who bring a wealth of experience
and knowledge to our organization. 1000 Friends' experienced staff deals
with all aspects of growth management and land use law in Florida, and
include members of the Florida Bar and the Fellows of the American Institute
of Certified Planners.
1000 Friends
of Florida is uniquely positioned to shape how Florida addresses the
issue of climate change. Gov. Crist has made this issue a top priority
for his administration, and has appointed 1000 Friends President Charles
Pattison, FAICP, to the Florida Governor's Action Team on Energy and
Climate Change and its Transportation and Land Use Technical Working
Group. Additionally, Pattison has been appointed to the Climate Change
Advisory Group of the Florida Energy Commission, and then-Senate President
Tom Lee appointed Pattison to the Century Commission for a Sustainable
Florida.
Due to
Pattison's service to the three major state panels addressing climate
change and 1000 Friends' role as the state's "growth management
watchdog," 1000 Friends can play a leading role in advancing meaningful
regional, state and local policy solutions that deal with the interface
between growth management and global warming. Our goal is to develop
strategic land use and transportation policy recommendations relating
to both mitigating and adapting to the impacts of global warming.
